Impact of Molecular Testing on Surgical Decision-Making in Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules: A Global Meta-Analysis Across Test Generations

Clinical Snapshot

Key Findings

• P Value: p < 0.001

• Effect Size: OR = 2.258 for conventional management vs molecular testing (higher surgical rates)

• Primary Outcome: Surgical resection rates significantly lower with molecular testing vs conventional management

• Nnt Or Sensitivity: Second-generation tests showed 40% reduction in surgical rates compared to first-generation (OR = 1.709, 95% CI: 1.122-2.601)

• Confidence Interval: 95% CI: 1.548-3.293

Clinical Application

Molecular testing platforms available through private pathology services, though PBS coverage limited Aligns with RACGP thyroid nodule guidelines supporting risk stratification. TGA-approved molecular platforms available but cost considerations important given limited PBS subsidisation Patients with Bethesda III/IV thyroid nodules in Australian endocrine practice

Abstract

Thyroid nodules with indeterminate cytology represent a clinical challenge owing to uncertain malignancy risk, often leading to diagnostic surgery. Molecular testing has emerged as a promising adjunct to improve risk stratification and guide surgical decision-making. However, the clinical utility and impact of different molecular platforms remain debated. The present study evaluates the impact of molecular testing on surgical decision-making in indeterminate thyroid nodules and compares outcomes between first- and second-generation molecular platforms. A PRISMA-guided systematic review and meta-analysis identified 132 studies including 66,448 thyroid nodules, of which 30,292 (45.6%) were indeterminate (Bethesda III/IV). Pooled analyses included studies directly comparing conventional management with molecular testing or different molecular platforms. Primary outcomes were surgical resection rates and risk of malignancy (ROM), stratified by diagnostic approach and test generation. Conventional management demonstrated significantly higher surgical rates than molecular testing group (OR = 2.258, 95% CI: 1.548-3.293, p < 0.001). ROM among resected nodules was lower in the conventional management compared with the molecular testing group (OR = 0.594, 95% CI: 0.388-0.911, p = 0.017). First-generation molecular tests showed higher surgical rates and lower ROM than second-generation assays (OR = 1.709, 95% CI: 1.122-2.601, p = 0.013; OR = 0.665, 95% CI: 0.515-0.858, p = 0.002, respectively). Exclusion of non-invasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features attenuated differences in malignancy rates. Molecular testing significantly reduces surgical interventions in indeterminate thyroid nodules without evidence of reduced detection of clinically significant malignancy, particularly with second-generation platforms supporting more individualized and evidence-based management strategies.

References

1. 1.Nguyen, T. P., Bychkov, A., Jung, C. K., Kakudo, K., & Rana, C. (2026). Impact of molecular testing on surgical decision-making in indeterminate thyroid nodules: A global meta-analysis across test generations. Endocrine Pathology. https://doi.org/10.18231/j.ijpo.2020.015