Research Appraisals

BMJ open

Developing and validating an electronic health record-embedded AI model for managing multimorbid hospitalisation risk in patients with chronic RESpiratory disease (AiRES): a study protocol

BACKGROUND: Chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs), such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), are heterogeneous conditions with a high multimorbidity burden. However, existing risk assessment instruments prioritise physiological measures while overlooking systemic comorbidities. We aim to develop and validate an electronic health record (EHR)-embedded artificial intelligence (AI) model-AiRES (AI in patients with RESpiratory disease)-to predict the 30-day, 90-day and 180-day risks of all-cause and index-disease hospitalisations. This model represents a first step towards a clinical decision support tool for personalised multimorbidity management in patients with CRD. METHOD AND ANALYSIS: Patients aged ≥18 years with a validated case definition of asthma and COPD will be identified from Singapore health administrative data (2012-2020). Candidate predictors will include age, sex, ethnicity, housing type, and comorbidities, measured across multiple care settings as visit frequency, grouped at quarterly intervals in Year 1 and annually for Years 2 and 3 over a 3-year lookback window. We will predict 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day risks of (1) all-cause and (2) asthma/COPD-specific hospital admissions using up to five randomly selected index dates per individual. Three machine learning algorithms-logistic regression (LR) with Lasso regularisation, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, and Categorical Boosting-will be trained using 10-fold cross-validation (CV) with an ensemble feature selection strategy. The optimal model, selected based on performance and feature importance, will be benchmarked against two reference models: a full LR and a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial regression with hospitalisation history as the sole predictor. Discrimination and calibration will be assessed using internal-external cluster-based and temporal CV. Clinical utility will be evaluated using decision curve analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study obtained ethics approval from the National University of Singapore (NUS-IRB-2024-849). Results will be published in international peer-reviewed journals.