Research Appraisals
Evidence-based critical appraisals of the latest medical research, systematically evaluated using Oxford CEBM methodology.
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Scientific reports
Differentially private federated learning for localized control of infectious disease dynamics
In times of epidemics, swift reaction is necessary to mitigate epidemic spreading. For this reaction, localized approaches have several advantages, limiting necessary resources and reducing the impact of interventions on a larger scale. However, training a separate machine learning (ML) model on a local scale is often not feasible due to limited available data. Centralizing the data is also challenging because of its high sensitivity and privacy constraints. In this study, we consider a localized strategy based on the German counties and communities managed by the related local health authorities (LHA). For the preservation of privacy to not oppose the availability of detailed situational data, we propose a privacy-preserving forecasting method that can assist public health experts and decision makers. ML methods with federated learning (FL) train a shared model without centralizing raw data. Considering the counties, communities or LHAs as clients and finding a balance between utility and privacy, we study a FL framework with client-level differential privacy (DP). We train a shared multilayer perceptron on sliding windows of recent case counts to forecast the number of cases in the future, while clients exchange only norm-clipped updates and the server aggregates updates with DP noise. We evaluate the approach on COVID-19 data on county-level during two phases: November 2020 and March 2022 (Omicron). As expected, very strict privacy ([Formula: see text]) yields unstable, unusable forecasts. At a moderately strong but still privacy-preserving level ([Formula: see text]), the DP model closely approaches the non-DP model: [Formula: see text] (vs. 0.96) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) [Formula: see text] in November 2020; [Formula: see text] (vs. 0.90) and MAPE [Formula: see text] in March 2022. Overall, our results support the feasibility of privacy-preserving collaboration among health authorities for local forecasting. In the evaluated COVID-19 phases, client-level DP-FL delivered useful county-level predictions with formal privacy guarantees under the stated threat model. The appropriate privacy budget should nevertheless be re-evaluated for other epidemic phases and applications.
8 July 2026
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Forecasting COVID-19 new cases using NBEATS deep learning and mobility data
COVID-19 is a highly contagious disease transmitted primarily through human contact. Therefore, understanding population mobility is essential for predicting COVID-19 case trends. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning approach for forecasting new COVID-19 cases using a neural architecture called Neural Basis Expansion Analysis for Interpretable Time Series (N-BEATS). The N-BEATS model effectively handles long input sequences and large output horizons without information loss or increased computational complexity. We compare the performance of N-BEATS with a state-of-the-art benchmark model, LSTM-Markov, across four major countries: the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, and Brazil. Three distinct COVID-19 datasets from Google, Apple, and Our World in Data (OWID) were used in this study. Incorporating Google and Apple mobility data as covariates enhances both the accuracy and interpretability of the N-BEATS model. Our results show that N-BEATS consistently outperforms LSTM-Markov across all datasets and countries, consistently yielding lower Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Furthermore, the N-BEATS model with covariates outperforms its counterpart without covariates, indicating that mobility data provide substantial value for forecasting new COVID-19 cases. Overall, this study demonstrates the effectiveness of the N-BEATS architecture in capturing pandemic dynamics and offers valuable insights for policymakers and public health officials in managing future outbreaks.
30 June 2026
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