Multicenter ML Study Opens: Predicting ABPA Exacerbation Risk to Transform Clinical Decision-Making in Allergic Bronchopulmonary Aspergillosis
247 Health News Editorial
·21 July 2026
·5 min read
·clinical-trialsA multicenter bidirectional cohort study (NCT07714863) is now recruiting to develop and externally validate a machine learning model predicting acute exacerbation risk in stable-phase ABPA patients. The study will compare nine ML algorithms and deploy SHAP-based interpretability tools and an interactive nomogram to support clinical decision-making. Results are anticipated to reshape risk stratification and treatment timing in this chronically relapsing condition.
Originally reported by ClinicalTrials.gov
References
- 1.Qianfoshan Hospital. (2025). Machine learning-based prediction of recurrence risk in allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis and its clinical decision-making value: A multicenter study with external validation (NCT07714863). ClinicalTrials.gov. https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07714863
- 2.Agarwal, R., Chakrabarti, A., Shah, A., Gupta, D., Meis, J. F., Guleria, R., Moss, R., & Denning, D. W. (2013). Allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis: Review of literature and proposal of new diagnostic and classification criteria. Clinical & Experimental Allergy, 43(8), 850–873. https://doi.org/10.1111/cea.12141
- 3.Agarwal, R., Muthu, V., Sehgal, I. S., Dhooria, S., Prasad, K. T., & Aggarwal, A. N. (2024). Allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis: Updates in the ISHAM-ABPA Working Group guidelines. Medical Mycology, 62(5), myae039. https://doi.org/10.1093/mmy/myae039
- 4.Rajpurkar, P., Chen, E., Banerjee, O., & Topol, E. J. (2022). AI in health and medicine. Nature Medicine, 28(1), 31–38. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01614-0
- 5.Lundberg, S. M., & Lee, S. I. (2017). A unified approach to interpreting model predictions. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 30, 4765–4774. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1705.07874
- 6.Patterson, T. F., Thompson, G. R., Denning, D. W., Fishman, J. A., Hadley, S., Herbrecht, R., Kontoyiannis, D. P., Marr, K. A., Morrison, V. A., Nguyen, M. H., Segal, B. H., Steinbach, W. J., Stevens, D. A., Walsh, T. J., Wingard, J. R., Young, J. A., & Bennett, J. E. (2016). Practice guidelines for the diagnosis and management of aspergillosis: 2016 update by the Infectious Diseases Society of America. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 63(4), e1–e60. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciw326
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247 Health News Editorial
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